Normally, I play a lot of unders in the NFL with success. But I noticed a few weeks back that most of the MNF games were going WAY over the total. I'm no statistician, but I dug up the numbers for this year.
Posted Total/Actual Total/Difference
44.5/51/over by 6.5 (This was the Thursday night NE/IN game, but I'm counting it as a "prime time" weeknight game)
43/38/under by 5
50.5/43/under by 6.5
35.5/39/over by 3.5
41/51/over by 10
44.5/75/over by 30.5
42.5/49/over by 6.5
42.5/33/under by 9.5
36.5/55/over by 19.5
57.5/59/over by 1.5
43.5/70/over by 26.5
54/46/under by 8
51/62/over by 9
43/82/over by 39
53.5/87/over by 33.5
As you can see, primetime weeknight NFL games in 2004 are 11-4 o/u. Equally notable is that, in the 4 games that went under the total, the average points under the total is 7.25, basically within 1 TD of the posted total. For the 11 games that went over the total, the average points over the total is 16.9!
This basically means that if you're playing the under, you're much more susceptible to the "fluke" TD off a blocked punt, INT, etc., blowing the under for you. Whereas if you're playing the over, the likelihood that the game sails way over the total is pretty good.
Also, the LOWEST point total for the year in these games is 33....which is still relatively high compared to games played on Sundays, where we frequently see totals much lower (e.g., final scores of 10-7).
I have heard/read that the average total points scored in NFL games this year is somewhere around 42-43 points per game. The average for weeknight primetime games is 56!
I only looked at #s for this season. Perhaps some of the number gurus can enlighten us as to whether or not this is a single-season phenomenon, or maybe there is something to "Monday night magic," at least for offenses.
Hope this helps someone out and continues through the season so we can use it to ca$h. GLTA
Posted Total/Actual Total/Difference
44.5/51/over by 6.5 (This was the Thursday night NE/IN game, but I'm counting it as a "prime time" weeknight game)
43/38/under by 5
50.5/43/under by 6.5
35.5/39/over by 3.5
41/51/over by 10
44.5/75/over by 30.5
42.5/49/over by 6.5
42.5/33/under by 9.5
36.5/55/over by 19.5
57.5/59/over by 1.5
43.5/70/over by 26.5
54/46/under by 8
51/62/over by 9
43/82/over by 39
53.5/87/over by 33.5
As you can see, primetime weeknight NFL games in 2004 are 11-4 o/u. Equally notable is that, in the 4 games that went under the total, the average points under the total is 7.25, basically within 1 TD of the posted total. For the 11 games that went over the total, the average points over the total is 16.9!
This basically means that if you're playing the under, you're much more susceptible to the "fluke" TD off a blocked punt, INT, etc., blowing the under for you. Whereas if you're playing the over, the likelihood that the game sails way over the total is pretty good.
Also, the LOWEST point total for the year in these games is 33....which is still relatively high compared to games played on Sundays, where we frequently see totals much lower (e.g., final scores of 10-7).
I have heard/read that the average total points scored in NFL games this year is somewhere around 42-43 points per game. The average for weeknight primetime games is 56!
I only looked at #s for this season. Perhaps some of the number gurus can enlighten us as to whether or not this is a single-season phenomenon, or maybe there is something to "Monday night magic," at least for offenses.
Hope this helps someone out and continues through the season so we can use it to ca$h. GLTA
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